SPX July Returns

pic_july_returns062913

When SPX June returns are negative there is a 58% probability that July closes positive.

We can see that the monthly returns for 2013 are in a downtrend.

2013_year062913

Year to date SPX is up over 12% for 2013.

Below are years when SPX closed June negative but over 10% for the year up to June.

Notice that we are still on track for a strong close to 2013 (very likely double from here).

Also take note of the strong positive July's given June and year to date returns.

spx_returns062913

The market seems to be in a volatile battleground between the QE taper and QE no-taper parties. Expect more uncertainty and volatility as the market tries to price in both arguments as US data econ hits the tape.

My guess is that we succumb to weak seasonality and the markets pricing in taper but no actual taper setting up a strong finish into the end of year.

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