SPX June and End Of Year Expectations

So SPX dropped over 1% into the end of the month yesterday after running up almost a full 5% at the highs.

To put it in context SPX still managed to pull out a 2% May Returns and is still above 14% for 2013.

Below are charts for real June Returns and the Distribution of June Returns since 1950.

June_Ret060113

SPX_JuneREt060213

But the key question is: What can we expect SPX to do from here?

Here are the results when SPX closes out May up 2% and over 10% for the year up to the end of May:

*Average for June with the above parameters is .07%

*SPX data goes back to 1950 to 05/31/13.

June_Ret_excel060113

EOMay_JuneRet060113

 

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